decypher-pills

The Thucydides Trap refers to the historical pattern where a rising power threatens to displace an established power, often leading to war. The term comes from Thucydides, the ancient Greek historian who described the Peloponnesian War between rising Athens and dominant Sparta. In modern times, the concept is often applied to the rivalry between the U.S. and China, where many analysts believe that China’s rise could lead to conflict with the U.S., just as previous shifts in
global power have led to war. The theory suggests that such power transitions are inherently dangerous and require careful management to avoid escalation. 

The « Pivot to Asia » refers to the U.S. strategic shift, initiated under President Obama, to enhance diplomatic, military, and economic engagement with the Asia-Pacific region. This policy shift was driven by the recognition of Asia’s growing economic importance and the need to counter China’s rising influence in the region. The pivot involved strengthening alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, increasing U.S. military presence in the Pacific, and promoting trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). 

The strategy aimed to maintain stability in the region while balancing China’s expanding role. 

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, is an ambitious global infrastructure and economic development project aimed at building trade networks across Asia, Africa, and Europe. It involves significant investments in infrastructure such as roads, railways, ports, and energy pipelines, designed to enhance connectivity and trade with China.  

However, BRI is also seen as a tool for expanding China’s geopolitical influence by binding participant countries to it through debt dependency and economic reliance. Countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Kenya have faced challenges repaying large Chinese loans, raising concerns about a « debt-trap diplomacy » strategy, where China gains leverage over strategic assets, such as ports.  

Furthermore, the initiative has strategic security implications, particularly in maritime regions where China is gaining access to critical trade routes and potential military bases. Critics argue that BRI enhances China’s ability to project power globally, challenging U.S.-led international order. 

Definition

The European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) is the EU’s framework for managing relations with neighboring countries to the east and south of its borders. Its goal is to promote stability, security, and prosperity through closer political association, economic integration, and cooperation, without necessarily offering membership.

Historical Context

The ENP was launched in 2004, shortly after the EU’s “big bang” enlargement brought in ten new members. The EU wanted to avoid creating new dividing lines with its neighbors while extending its influence beyond its borders. It targeted countries in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and the Mediterranean. Over time, the ENP evolved into more specialized initiatives: the Eastern Partnership (EaP) for countries like Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, and the Union for the Mediterranean for North African and Middle Eastern partners.

Practical Examples

Through the ENP, the EU provides financial aid, trade access, and political cooperation in exchange for reforms. For example, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia have signed Association Agreements with the EU, including Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs), bringing them closer to the European market. In the south, Morocco and Tunisia have received support for governance and economic modernization. However, the ENP has struggled in conflict-prone regions, such as Syria or Libya, where EU influence has been limited.

Current Relevance

The ENP remains vital because the EU’s neighborhood is highly unstable. To the east, Russia’s war in Ukraine has transformed the ENP into a geopolitical battleground, with the EU offering candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. To the south, instability in North Africa and the Middle East generates migration flows, energy vulnerabilities, and security risks. The ENP is not just about cooperation—it is also about competition, as Russia, China, and Turkey seek to expand their influence in these same regions.

Future Outlook

The ENP’s effectiveness will depend on the EU’s willingness to invest politically and financially in its neighbors. It will also hinge on balancing inclusiveness with credibility: offering enough incentives to foster reform without making promises the EU cannot keep. Ultimately, the ENP will remain a central tool for projecting stability and influence in the EU’s near abroad.

Definition

The Strategic Compass is the European Union’s defense and security roadmap, adopted in 2022, designed to strengthen the EU’s ability to act as a geopolitical and security actor. It outlines shared threat perceptions, sets concrete goals for military cooperation, and provides a framework for crisis management, defense investment, and partnerships.

Historical Context

For decades, EU security and defense policy lagged behind its economic integration. NATO remained the cornerstone of European defense, while the EU focused more on soft power and civilian missions. However, the growing instability in Europe’s neighborhood—terrorism, hybrid threats, and Russia’s aggressive posture—pushed the EU to define a stronger strategic role. The idea of a Strategic Compass was first launched in 2020, reflecting the need for a unified security vision. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 accelerated its adoption, transforming it into a landmark in EU defense policy.

Practical Examples

The Strategic Compass includes ambitious projects such as the creation of a 5,000-strong EU rapid deployment capacity by 2025, intended for crisis response missions. It also emphasizes cyber defense, space security, and resilience against hybrid threats. The document promotes closer cooperation with NATO, while also pushing for the EU to be able to act autonomously if necessary. Furthermore, it calls for stronger defense industrial collaboration, building on initiatives such as the European Defence Fund and PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation).

Current Relevance

The Strategic Compass is highly relevant today because the war in Ukraine has highlighted Europe’s vulnerabilities and dependence on the United States for hard security. While NATO remains central, the EU has recognized that it cannot rely exclusively on external actors to manage crises. The Compass seeks to close the gap between expectations and capabilities by encouraging member states to pool resources, coordinate investments, and enhance readiness. It also strengthens the EU’s credibility as a security partner in regions like the Sahel, the Indo-Pacific, and the Balkans.

Future Outlook

The Strategic Compass marks a step toward a more geopolitical EU. Its long-term impact will depend on political will and whether member states actually commit resources to defense cooperation. If fully implemented, it could transform the EU into a more capable security actor, balancing its traditional normative power with tangible military capacity.

Definition

The Energy Union is a strategic framework launched by the European Union to ensure secure, sustainable, competitive, and affordable energy for all member states. It emphasizes reducing dependence on external suppliers, diversifying energy sources, integrating markets, and accelerating the green transition.

Historical Context

The concept gained traction after the 2009 Russia–Ukraine gas disputes, when several EU countries experienced supply interruptions during the winter. These crises highlighted Europe’s vulnerability due to its dependence on Russian gas. In 2015, the European Commission formally launched the Energy Union strategy, structured around five pillars: energy security, internal market integration, energy efficiency, decarbonization, and research/innovation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 gave the Energy Union renewed urgency, as the EU scrambled to replace Russian fossil fuels while staying committed to its climate targets.

Practical Examples

The Energy Union has led to concrete actions such as joint gas purchasing mechanisms, designed to strengthen Europe’s bargaining power. It also pushed for greater interconnectivity of electricity grids and cross-border pipelines to reduce reliance on single suppliers. The EU’s “REPowerEU” plan, launched in 2022, aimed to rapidly diversify energy imports, accelerate renewable deployment, and boost energy savings. Furthermore, the creation of a common LNG infrastructure across Europe enabled member states to import gas from the U.S., Qatar, and other partners.

Current Relevance

The Energy Union is critical today because energy security and climate policy have become inseparable from geopolitics. The weaponization of energy by Russia has turned diversification into a survival strategy for Europe. At the same time, the EU’s ambition to be a global leader in the green transition means it must secure access to renewable technologies, hydrogen infrastructure, and critical minerals. The Energy Union is therefore both an internal solidarity mechanism and an external geopolitical tool, shaping Europe’s partnerships with Africa, the Middle East, and the U.S.

Future Outlook

The Energy Union will continue to evolve as the backbone of Europe’s energy strategy. Its success will determine whether the EU can achieve climate neutrality by 2050 while remaining resilient to external shocks. Beyond reducing dependence, it positions Europe as a potential global model for integrating security, sustainability, and cooperation in energy policy.

Enlargement fatigue refers to the growing reluctance within the European Union to expand membership further, even when candidate
countries meet formal criteria. It reflects both political hesitation among existing member states and skepticism among EU citizens about the
costs, risks, and challenges of new accessions. 

Historical Context  

The EU’s most ambitious enlargement occurred in 2004, when ten countries—mostly from Central and Eastern Europe—joined, followed by Romania and Bulgaria in 2007 and Croatia in 2013. While these expansions symbolized the reunification of Europe after the Cold War, they also exposed integration challenges: managing economic disparities, migration flows, and rule of law issues. Over time, this created hesitation toward further enlargements, particularly regarding the Western Balkans, Turkey, and more recently Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. 

Practical Examples  

Turkey’s EU candidacy is the most striking example of enlargement fatigue. Negotiations, once active, have largely stalled due to concerns
over democratic backsliding and cultural-political differences. In the Western Balkans, countries like North Macedonia and Albania have been
promised accession paths for years but face repeated delays, often because some member states fear migration pressures or political
instability. The war in Ukraine has revitalized discussions about fast-tracking enlargement, but skepticism remains strong among countries
such as France and the Netherlands, which emphasize the need for “deepening” the EU before further “widening.” 

Current Relevance  

Enlargement fatigue is a central issue today because it shapes the EU’s geopolitical credibility. Candidate countries often see EU membership as both an anchor of stability and a reward for reforms. When the accession process stalls, it risks creating frustration and opening the door to alternative influences—particularly from Russia, China, or Turkey in the Western Balkans. At the same time, internal challenges within the EU—such as rule of law disputes, budget constraints, and public skepticism—fuel the resistance to enlarging too quickly. 

Future Outlook  

The future of enlargement will determine the EU’s role as a geopolitical actor. If the Union can overcome enlargement fatigue, it could extend stability and influence into its neighborhood, especially in the Balkans and Eastern Europe. But if fatigue persists, rival powers may fill the vacuum, reducing the EU’s ability to shape its regional environment. 

Strategic autonomy refers to a country or organization’s capacity to act independently in the global arena, particularly in defense, without
reliance on external powers.  

The European Union’s pursuit of strategic autonomy in defense aims to reduce its dependence on NATO and the U.S., particularly in response to
changing transatlantic relations and rising global threats. Initiatives such as PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) and the European
Defense Fund seek to enhance Europe’s defense capabilities by fostering joint military projects and increasing defense spending. Strategic
autonomy is motivated by the desire for Europe to act independently in crises, especially in its neighborhood, and to take more responsibility
for its own security.  

However, the feasibility of this goal is debated, given the differing defense priorities among EU member states and the deep-rooted reliance
on U.S. military support through NATO. While France and Germany are leading advocates of strategic autonomy, other states, especially in
Eastern Europe, remain skeptical, preferring to rely on NATO’s security umbrella against threats like Russia.