Definition #

Climate geopolitics refers to the ways in which climate change reshapes international relations, power dynamics, and global security. It is not only an environmental challenge but also a political and strategic one, as rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity influence migration, conflict, and economic stability.

Historical Context #

Although environmental issues were discussed internationally since the 1970s (e.g., the 1972 Stockholm Conference), the geopolitical dimension of climate change became prominent in the 21st century. The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point in recognizing climate as a global governance issue. However, subsequent events—such as devastating wildfires, prolonged droughts, and intensifying storms—have shown that climate change is not a distant concern but a present-day driver of instability.

Practical Examples #

Small island nations in the Pacific, like Tuvalu and the Maldives, face existential threats from rising sea levels, forcing them to lobby aggressively in international forums. In Africa’s Sahel region, desertification and drought have worsened conflicts over grazing land and water, fueling violence and migration. Meanwhile, the melting of Arctic ice has opened new sea routes and competition over resources, drawing interest from powers such as Russia, the U.S., and China. Climate change is also shaping great-power rivalry, with countries racing to dominate clean technologies like solar panels, wind turbines, and electric batteries.

Current Relevance #

Climate shocks—such as prolonged droughts in the Middle East or floods in South Asia—can trigger humanitarian crises, political unrest, and regional instability. Governments increasingly treat climate change as a national security issue. Militaries plan for disaster relief operations, while intelligence agencies assess the risks of climate-induced migration. Furthermore, the energy transition, necessary to mitigate climate change, has geopolitical consequences: it reduces the importance of oil-rich states while boosting demand for rare earth minerals, shifting global influence.

Future Outlook #

Climate geopolitics will remain central to international affairs. The coming decades will see new forms of competition and cooperation over managing environmental risks, securing resources for clean energy, and addressing climate-driven migration. In short, climate change will be not just a scientific challenge but a defining geopolitical fault line.